Monday, October 05, 2009

Russia's Population Problem

One thing that makes Russia comparable to Japan is that they both face an impending demographic crisis. True, the reduction in Russia's population is already evident while Japan's is at most a decade away. So it is more exact to state that Russia's is real and present, while Japan's population shrinkage is yet based on an extrapolation of present growth rates.

It is therefore interesting that while on one side of the world, there's the concern for high growth rates, these two countries face this unique kind of demographic pressure that man has not been experienced at this scale since the agrarian revolution a couple of centuries ago.

This article reported by the associated press in the NYT makes the profound claim that Russia's population has shrunk by 6.6 million souls since the year 1992. While the options available include immigration and pro-natalist policies, the relative homogeneity of Russia makes it unlikely that the latter will be considered a part of the solution. To my mind, Russia's leaders are faced with a difficult problem that would affect future growth but enlightened immigration should not be certainly off the table.

On the other hand, the high mortality rates of Russians is attributed to the tendency to consume higher amount of alcohol and there is a fix here too. A tax based on the alcoholic volume of beverages should assist in reducing early mortality and deaths. eve for a shrinking population, the attempts to ban alcohol consumption is not sensible. In a sense, there's no silver bullet solution but the reconsideration of the immigration policy should lead.

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