Leading UNESCO

I understand fully that in international organizations, the political issues that underly election of top officials sometimes go beyond pure merit. In these instances, the clout of the country from which a professional comes from is material. There is not only a lot of lobbying and promises to exchange support in the future but also reference to a candidate's standing about issues that are divisive. A fortnight ago, member states elected a new Director General for UNESCo and as reported here by Michael Slackman of the NYT, this was even more overtly political.

In spite of those facts among many others that I have not mentioned, I am glad that the elections of the Director General of UNESCO was determined as it did. My main reason is that Farouk Hosny did not deserve to be elected to UNESCO leadership for the reason that while he has held intellectual positions, he particularly advocated for the burning of books for the reason that they were the works of Jewish authors. While I hold no illusions about the perfection of all men and the processes that determine elections to international bodies, I think that for an intellectual to adopt such nativist and dangerous populism is an indication that they are insufficiently independent minded to hold positions of advancing literacy and such culture. I now little about UNESCO but I know who does not deserve to serve in its leadership.

Quantifcation as a Stunt

For any reasonably qualified student of economics, the mathematical and modeling skills are bound to be quite high. Indeed they are now thought to be a good predictor for successful completion of any graduate course in economics. This is a view that is almost accepted by a majority of economists and has begun to creep throughout the other social sciences. One is not a serious policy wonk or academic unless there is a high facility with numbers and modelling techniques.

What many economists have yet to explain properly is that the need to quantify more and more things sometimes leads to very ridiculous results. Nobody takes a more measured view on the use for calculus and other higher order mathematical techniques than John Kay. In his latest article, he gives an interesting view of how far the demand for quantification is taken with the result that beautiful algorithms explain nothing that was unknown. Taking forward his example, the UNDP's Human Development Index is itself derived from education levels, national income levels and life expectancy and in spite of the concoction of a sophisticated formula, it reveals nothing more than was plugged into the algorithm.

In a matter of speaking, it is just a mathematical stunt because it correlates so highly with income that there is little distinction between the two. Citizens of countries with sophisticated economies will have higher life expectancy and higher educational attainment. To put the three by according them different weights is a matter of taste and the resulting index is not useful.

Israel's Miracle in Development Economics

The small country of Israel is one that many people have political opinions on and perhaps the one that few understand pretty well. However, whenever people talk of the countries that have pulled off economic miracles, I am wont to think of Hong Kong, Singapore and Ireland. Lately, the focus has turned to India and China with huge expectations of their longer-term development.

I have just read for the third time this well-told piece analyzing the genesis of Israel's development miracle from a relatively backward socialist country into the most sophisticated country in the Middle East today. Writing in City Journal, it is clear to me that George Guilder has taken an analytical survey of Israel's technology driven growth.

To my mind, the elaborate survey of Israel's economy shows that well thought reforms based on rational economics always pays off in a big way. It is not by default that Israel has managed to survive in the hostile neighbourhood while maintaining a far higher standard life for its citizens in comparison to other Middle Eastern nations. And it is clear that as it's private sector races forward with more investment in technology backed by solid economic reforms, it will continue to be formidable as a military adversary.

As a small country, the arrival of a reform-minded government ensured that new businesses based on new models emerged and naturally supplanted state supported competitors. This was closely followed by venture capital funds which have made Israel a leader in total investments after adjustment for population. It is also clear that success in the semiconductor design business opens up opportunities in biotechnology and software development.

In conclusion, unlike the author, I agree that Israel's performance over the last two decades should form a chapter in development economics course readers in addition to case studies for business schools. As a country, its business leaders are right on top of their game and are ensuring that the country will continue to be on the cutting edge of technology and therefore prosperous. To my mind, similarly clear thinking should be applied to political reforms so that the entire Middle east needs gets an example from this enigma.

Closing Vietnam's Think Tank

In my view one indicator of the level of freedom in any country is the number, quality and variety of issues that think tanks do. This is not to argue that there is a causative relationship between the two. This trite point occurred to me today after reading through this short piece in the LA Times. the main point of news in the story is that an independent think tank in Vietnam has opted to close down in response to an unreasonable quest to circumscribe the areas of independent research. The Institute of Development Studies has made a difficult and even arguably bad decision by opting to close down but it is understandable that independent thinkers are distressed by this appalling decree.

It is clear that the government of Vietnam is making a very serious mistake in placing restrictions on the matters that may be made the subject of research in that country. to start with, the most palpable purpose of research is to discover the unknown and clarify knowledge. It is therefore presumptuous for a government to insist that there are only 317 issues that should be subjected to research. I am most impressed with the statement by the IDS in asserting that banning independent thought is the antithesis of scientific endeavour and that open discussion is useful for policy creation.

As a previous visitor to Hanoi, I am disappointed because my assessment was that the country would continue to open up over time. I hope that Vietnam's savvy politicians can justify their reputation for pragmatism and regain my confidence by taking seriously the implications of this decision by a body of scholars to close down the thought factory. As I often quoted from Anthony Fisher before, ideas have consequences.

Steven Landsburg on Antidotes

" The antidote to bad religion is good science. The antidote to astrology is the scientific method, the antidote to naive creationism is evolutionary biology, and the antidote to naive environmentalism is economics". Steven Landsburg, in The Armchair Economist.

Saltwater Versus Freshwater Economists

For a discipline that has ridden high in the last two decades, I think that the recent financial crisis and subsequent economic recession will leave economists of all kinds with lots of explanation to do. For one, the state of affairs makes it clear that the confidence that professional macro economists have had was largely undeserved. More pertinently, though, the state of affairs in the US and Europe have led to the need to re-examine the theories that have informed most economic explanations at the macro economy.

Coming back to one of its most lucid writers, Paul Krugman revisits the ideological arguments in the discipline generally and especially in macroeconomics. because the story is worth reading for itself and I am not as competent in explaining macroeconomics, I do not attempt to summarize it. However, it clearly states the fair point that the major assumptions of rationality by the discipline are not tenable any longer. It is clear now that the hasty dismissal of Keynesian understanding was premature and the resurgence of this alternative is almost guaranteed. With credit to Paul Krugman, he does not push the Keynesian alternative too far but has concentrated the essay in demonstrating that its; explanation of recessions and the prescriptions for going over them is more complete and demonstrably effective.

As he says, the search for a more complete theory of macroeconomics is on but I would wager that there are already careers invested in one approach. this means that irrespective of the merits or demerits of the Neoclassical approach, the success of the administration in restoring market activities will not be as easy to concede. It is also clear to me as a student of economics that the rigour of economics must require proper models but more importantly, the difficult math must yield sensible results. The absolute rationality of all financial market participants is not one of them and thankfully, markets do not demand rationality from all.

Falling Asleep Over the Board

This story in the Times newspaper reports that Vladislav Tkachiev, a professional chess player fell asleep over the chessboard while facing an opponent at a tournament. As the story goes ahead to explain, it is being posited that the maverick player, who is ranked 58 worldwide, was probably inebriated. I think that chess players are also entitled to having fun.

What I find most surprising is the call by Nigel Short and the tone of other officials in seeking to punish the player further. This is all unnecessary and the action of desperate official in professional sports in thinking that more rules will lead to their version of better behaviour. My view is that the response here is extremely silly. To start with, I play chess occasionally against friends and while I am nowhere near master level, I understand more than these officials are betraying.

They seem to be unaware that to be a chess Grandmaster requires such discipline and a high degree of concentration that it is in the interest of any player who relies upon it for income to be alert throughout matches. So to introduce any rules of overreact in this instance is just show for the crowds and the sponsors but this indignation is completely unjustified. I also think that due to the required level of alertness and the generally high intelligence of competitive chess players, the single event of a player falling asleep on the board is some remote and unlikely. The appropriate response is to let it pass and not make rules for an event that is so unlikely to occur again. True, Mr. Tkachiev should forfeit the match and the prize money and that is all. Chess is played at that level by extremely intelligent, if eccentric people, who do not need to be governed by more rules. And while at it, may i ask who benefits from rules?

Why Are So Few Athletes Articulate?

While I do not spend too much money buying sports merchandise, I dedicate a lot of time to watching soccer, Formula 1 racing and a couple of other sports events during weekends. And I also understand that these athletes are not only supremely fit but capable of amazing feats. to get to that level of physical conditioning requires significant practice because the elite athletes are all outliers according to Malcolm Gladwell's claim.

However, one of the areas in which I am almost always disappointed is while watching or reading interviews by various sportsmen who excel in their fields. Judging from a vast majority of soccer players, they are often thoroughly incoherent and speak in very short and generic sentences. I think among the phrases that athletes have explored to death are "great", "awesome" and "fantastic play". My near conclusion has been that many soccer players in particular have all their talent on their feet alone.

But there are exceptions and one of those has been Patrick Vieira who plays soccer and the vast majority of Formula 1 drivers. I have added to that list the name of Clarence Seedorf, one of the most accomplished soccer players in Europe. In this piece in the NYT sports pages, he responds to a series of questions from readers about European football management, the incomes that accrue to players and many others. He has entered my hallowed list of brainy athletes especially in reference to his answer about the determinants of players incomes. His answer suggests some knowledge of the economics of the game. He nails is properly by alluding to the fact that the market is rewarding skills for a limited set of players and that is why they are able to have large incomes.