3-D Printing is Not Alchemy

Any person who can read this blog post is aware of the fact that 3-D printing has been demonstrated to be able to make usable copies of prosthetic limbs, useful materials and even a firearm. And yet most of the press coverage about the potential of 3-D printing is obviously overstated. reading many commentaries, one would get the impression that this technology renders every physical object subject to production through 3-D printing and therefore that it will have a profound effect on manufacturing and virtually all industrial processes.

Carl Bass, writing in Wired here, adopts a more circumspect approach to the claims and goes through a detailed explanation of 3-D printing. Among the most important points he makes is that the explosion in the use of the technology is still constrained by the fact that this technology seems to be in an experimental stages. But the most profound statement is that 3-D is unlikely to reach mass use and thereby wipe our industrial manufacturing because of the economics of the technology. In particular, the author argues that in scaling up models, 3-D there is a significant cost barrier because the cost appreciates with scale. Calling this the Third Power of 3-D printing, it is empirically established that the time, costs and material required scales up to the third power. Thus a proper business model dos not exist yet and so it is constrained by volume. 

This means the technology is unlikely to displace conventional manufacturing and will be used at small scale by individuals. In essence, 3-D printing will improve over time but is not the equivalent of alchemy for manufacturing. 

Dan Brown's Take on Population Growth

In the interview embedded here from the Guardian's website, Dan Brown, an author of highly popular fiction mentions the fact that world population has trebled in 85 years. Implicit in the question from the interview and the author's answer is the unquestioned assumption that rapid population is undoubtedly a threat to survival of humanity. From the short interview, it is clear that the author and questioner take it that a concern for the fate of the earth is warranted.

My quick review of the acts state that this is true and most of the growth has been in poorer parts of Asia, Africa and Latin America. However, that most of the population still exists should lead to greater caution is asserting that most of the world's ecological and environmental problems are driven by overpopulation. Noting that the publication under discussion is fiction, it must be accepted that the author should communicate his ideas as he sees them. Still, I would suggest that this author should read a couple of books and understand the dynamics of population growth because it is almost a neutral in factor in overall economic performance. The structure of the population is far more important than the absolute number of people.

Added June 21, 2013: Perhaps a subtle issue such as the primary drivers of population growth as oppossed to the absolute population does not make for good plot in best selling fiction.

The Trade of of Graduate Economists

"Most economists start graduate school not having spent much time thinking about social problems or studied much else besides math and economics. The incentive and hierarchy systems tend to reward those with the technical skills rather than interesting questions or research agendas." Dani Rodrik in, World Economics Association newsletter.