Thursday, August 30, 2012

Systems Design and Remote Probability

More than a decade ago, most technology users were faced with what was called the 2K problem which referred to the early programming of computers and related equipment which did not anticipate the change into the the new millennium. A lot of media frenzy and doomsday scenarios were developed about the mass crashing of computer systems together with the possibility that a level of problems may occur. To my mind, this state of affairs reflects a degree on inertia because in designing systems, we discount the future and are not always capable of covering all scenarios.

Reading this article reminded me of the 2K problem for the reason that the national health insurance service in Kenya has computer and software systems that were programmed with assumptions that are now causing an inconvenience. As stated in this story from the Daily Nation in Kenya, a man whose identification documents suggests that he is 128 years old could not be registered by the National Hospital Insurance Fund for the reason that its system software can only go as far back as 1890. Thus several attempts have been made to ensure his registration, without success.  

To my mind, this incident is interesting for a couple of reasons. The first is that given that the life expectancy of most Kenyan males is about 60 years, the system was designed with the view that the probability of an individual being 128 years old in Kenya was far too low to consider. Secondly, the failure to resolve this issue shows the degree to which people and institutions are captive to systems and are unable to adjust easily. In this case, it would still be okay for an authorized person to simply use the earliest data possible in ensuring the registration of this individual. Instead, I see the fixation with getting the right date and trying a variety of tricks to ensure that registration.     

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