Kenya's Population Below Forecast

Kenya conducted a population and housing census sometime in 2009 but the results were not released by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics until sometime this week. The most interesting fact in that data released has been totally missed by the press and commentators and instead there are stories about how the country's population is growing by at least one million people annually. In my view, the statement that the population grows annually by 1 million people is not useful at all especially if neither the base nor  the doubling time is unstated. And yet press statements have concentrated on trying to push through the idea of high population growth rates with undertones of a demographic disaster.

The point that has been completely missed is that the forecasts made about Kenya more recently had placed its population at a minimum of 40 million people. The complete count from the highlights show that Kenya's population is at 38.6 million. That is still a large population as it places Kenya among the top 50 largest countries by population. what is shows is that the Malthusian understanding of population growth remains the dominant lens for viewing demographic phenomenon. 

One presentation included on the site states that the whole undertaking was accomplished at a cost of US$ 104 million. At a cost of US$ 2.7 per individual, it looks like an efficient way to capture data that should find better use than merely broadcasting ethnic composition and sending stories of impending demographic disasters. The dialogue should move to why a country with a large youthful population is not undergoing a Demographic Transition and reaping the demographic dividend that is necessary for take off.  Another notable feature of the results is that settlement in Kenya is still overwhelmingly rural with 67% of the population resident in rural areas.