Due to my declared libertarian inclination, I have weighed in with arguments on this blog about the longer-term prospects of India and China. In summary, my consistent contention has been that India may be a bungling democracy but will continue to make steady steps and eventually catch up and outrace China into sustained development. All this is because of my belief that the advantages of a sustained democratic order for more than half a century are not only unique but will be enduring. Despite the steady leadership of China's political party and the surface calmness, its political institutions are not comparatively advanced. This unequalled strength of the Chinese Communist party is perhaps its achilles heel too because of the absence of competing ideas in the political market.
Amartya Sen has written a timely and very incisive article in the NYT here, not only noting the difference between the two Asian neighbors but also seeking to explain why one leads the other. In spite of his being an Indian citizen, he makes the profound statement that India has trailed for so long that it may not be able to catch up with China at all. In this Nobel laureate's view, the gap in development outcomes between india and China is explained by the weakness of the India's public sector and the poor provision of public services.
Of particular concern is that india has failed to internalize the lessons of the Asian miracle which placed a huge premium on provision of good healthcare and education. The stark comparison is real and reveals India's contradictions and great differences in the capability of citizens. In india's case, the world's largest producer of generic medicine also has appallingly underdeveloped public health systems. To sum it all, India's best industries can compete internationally but the large differences between its best and least educated undermines a longer and sustained growth path. While Amartya sen does not mention it, I am led to ask myself why the seeming comfort with vast inequalities in access and outcomes of health and education services in india is an enduring legacy of the social stratification engendered by the caste system.
Whatever the answer may be, I am aware that the odds of my bet that India will outrace China have shortened substantially. Sen's summary leads me to wonder how badly india would be doing if it did not have the single engine of democracy to begin with.
Amartya Sen has written a timely and very incisive article in the NYT here, not only noting the difference between the two Asian neighbors but also seeking to explain why one leads the other. In spite of his being an Indian citizen, he makes the profound statement that India has trailed for so long that it may not be able to catch up with China at all. In this Nobel laureate's view, the gap in development outcomes between india and China is explained by the weakness of the India's public sector and the poor provision of public services.
Of particular concern is that india has failed to internalize the lessons of the Asian miracle which placed a huge premium on provision of good healthcare and education. The stark comparison is real and reveals India's contradictions and great differences in the capability of citizens. In india's case, the world's largest producer of generic medicine also has appallingly underdeveloped public health systems. To sum it all, India's best industries can compete internationally but the large differences between its best and least educated undermines a longer and sustained growth path. While Amartya sen does not mention it, I am led to ask myself why the seeming comfort with vast inequalities in access and outcomes of health and education services in india is an enduring legacy of the social stratification engendered by the caste system.
Whatever the answer may be, I am aware that the odds of my bet that India will outrace China have shortened substantially. Sen's summary leads me to wonder how badly india would be doing if it did not have the single engine of democracy to begin with.
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