Wednesday, September 21, 2011

Is China Really As Powerful as the US?

Judging from the immense trouble that president Obama of the United States is having in getting politicians to work behind a coherent and mutually agreeable plan, one can safely assume that the country is bound to delay recovery and have its preeminence in the world eroded. This state of political discord has not only led to concern about the functional health of that political system but that this undermines the nation's ability to deal with big problems related to large deficits and long-term problems in financial undertakings.

In spite of the undoubted disfunction in the political process and its effects on the economy, I maintain that the US still has some time before any economy, china included, can get to surpass it in factors of material economic and military dominance. Simon Johnson, writes in this article that a book that is due for publication later in the fall suggests that China may have already surpassed the United States in world dominance. To be clear, the author of that book, Arvind Subramaniam, is a vey competent academic and his views ought to be given serious reflections before reply. That notwithstanding, I still applaud China's very successful development experiment over three decades but it is unlikely that it has surpassed the United States yet.

Looking at the World Bank's latest data on Gross National Income (GNI) on  a per capita basis still leaves China at one tenth of US equivalents in nominal terms. to my mind, given the extreme importance of total income in determining dominance in scientific, commercial and cultural affairs, I think that China's dominance may be real but it is not yet close to the United States today. I will read the book after its publication and comment on the claims and data deployed to support the claim.  

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