TB Prevalence and IMF Loans

I have had an interest in understanding the factors that drive morbidity and how principles of economics could be used to cut the rates of spread of diseases. More recently, I noticed that tuberculosis is very costly to cure and was thinking that an appropriately designed incentives scheme would ensure that patients commit to the long treatment required and thus ensure complete cure and eradication of the pathogen. Admittedly, that would not be a new idea at all.

However, Sydney Spiesel of Slate Magazine alludes to this study which has interesting and very novel findings. Using multivariate regression analysis, David Stuckler, Lawrence King and Sanjay Basu find that programmes designed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF)are correlated with adverse health effects in countries as measured by the spread and prevalence of tuberculosis. The assertion is sensible because IMF programmes are all around known to be very stringent and often require adjustments that lead to a reduction of the quality and quantity of services that were hitherto provided by the public sector. In the case at hand, the study claims that the causality in the increased prevalence of pulmonary tuberculosis is because of the reduction in the number of medical personnel. This is particularly important for TB patients because of the close and constant supervision required in administering the medication. The most sobering claim is that every extra year of the loans associated with the IMF leads to a 4% increase in mortality. Certainly, it is not the IMF loans that is causing the deaths but this is a cruel illustration of the law of unintended consequences.

This fascinating and novel study is bound to inspire a response from the IMF. I cannot wait.