Inflation and HIV Infections in Zimbabwe

This article in the Washington Post reports that Zimbabwe has benefited vicariously from the poor economic management by the autocrat Robert Mugabe. The argument is that the extremely high rates of inflation have coincided with a systematic decrease in new infections with HIV over the last few years. The main reason posited is that most males in Zimbabwe had the opportunity to maintain multiple relationships but are unable to do so due to the drastic erosion of their incomes. More particularly, the story reports that this development is peculiar to Zimbabwe in the southern African region and is therefore a reflection of internal dynamics.

Admitting that the long-argued connection between HIV infections and economics are not very clear, one detects the thinking that the article and most of the persons quoted in the article think that the poor economic performance is responsible for the reduction in rates of infection.

While this idea is plausible, this blogger is cautious about the broad assumption. First, one ought to be careful with cross-country data on HIV infection rates in southern Africa and the entire continent in general. Secondly, correlation is obviously not tantamount to causation and besides poor economic performance, there may be other variables driving the fall in infection rates. All the anecdotes about men being unable to keep multiple relationships going do not substitute for real data. Thirdly, this blogger is not sure that HIV infection rates in Zimbabwe is singularly or overwhelmingly driven by prostitution as is assumed. Finally, it would be interesting to note the price and substitution effects to the reduced earnings of adult males. It just does not sound convincing that it takes a crisis in governance for people to realize that AIDS is a killer.