Africa's Tweet Data Means Nothing

It is a well-known that due to the availability of digital technology, there is a surfeit of data that represent human behaviour than ever. And yet the availability of vast amounts of data does not mean that it is necessarily more accessible or comprehensible. For instance, Portland, a firm that tracks technology uses has presented the results of its research in a chart appearing in image on this post and appearing on this datablog by Simon Rogers of the Guardian. The chart presents data on the the volume of Twitter messages sent within African countries. As is possible the image looks neat but I am certain that the chart tells the casual observer virtually nothing except that it was prepared by a person who does not understand the data that was collected.

To start with, there is a diversity of countries in Africa and so presentation of the absolute numbers is useful. However, there are number of school boy errors that emerge from that presentation. First, the placement of the data side by side invites comparisons among countries and creates the ranking system that the developers of the charts displays. This ranking is not possible because of the differences in population among these countries. Second, given the failure to account for the populations differences that are truly vast, the data cannot provide information that the heading of the chart purports. This second error may not be the fault of the data collectors but I suspect that the Guardian's data editors would spot this. The volume of messages are definitely provided by a different number of people in each country.  

Professors Experiment With College Education

I keep wondering how different education will be supplied and consumed in a couple of decades when digitization will be more mature. My wondering was in part reflected in this blog post in which I linked to an article about the MIT having introduced an e-learning course for which certification would be provided to participants. To my mind, the MIT may have been experimenting with a system which would then be varied and then used to inform the methods for delivering university-level education in the future. And the provision of certificates was the institution's way of ensuring that it has sufficient takers to allow for the experiment to yield meaningful results while assessing demand.

Sebastian Thrun, a professor from MIT learned from the huge demand for the free course on artificial intelligence and opted to convert that into a business opportunity. As MSNBC reports, the business will provide online education through video instruction with the teacher's time used in helping students to solve problems. This model is not a radical invention as the Khan Academy has a comparable model except that the latter is provided for open participation and with points accumulation as the evidence of accomplishment.

I am quite surprised that Sebastian Thrun resigned from MIT and is becoming a competitor in the provision of education services. It is difficult to assess the prospects of the new business but my view is that the demand that was expressed could follow the new business and this experiment means that soon, the top schools may have to consider taking the competition to their former employees. The MIT should consider taking over Udacity.  One cannot say anymore that technology is not changing education.  

Blackberry's Wrong Call

Soon after the election of president Obama in November 2008, the press made reports about the fact that he would have to let go of his Blackberry device because it was not approved communication device for the US president. At the time, I stated on this posted a blog post stating that Research In Motion, the makers of the Blackberry set of devices, ought to have taken the opportunity to assert that its systems were quite robust and that the security features could be comparable to considered alternatives. In my view then, their failure to pitch in here may have been a chance lost for high-powered marketing irrespective of whether the challenge was taken up or not.

Three years later, it is clear that Blackberry has had a difficult time and has lost a lot of ground to its competitors in that smart phone market. Its struggle in that market has culminated in the the resignation of its leadership team and replacement of the Chief eExecutive Officer. Juliette Garside of the Guardian reports that the slide in market share and the share price prompted the changes in management as the firm struggled to provide new gadgets.

While I still think that the firm will continue to provide its gadgets in spite of the lower market share, its new management will be required to make tough choices with no guarantee of success. To my mind, this episode illustrates the fact that the technology industry is not only dynamic but that it is difficult to tell what clients will buy in the future in addition to executing business plans perfectly.

The iPad as a Textbook

A couple of months ago, I stated in this post that Steve Jobs of Apple had stated to his biographer that information technology had not demonstrated revolutionary value for education. My interpretation is that he foresaw that the one area where this could happen would be to digitize textbooks and thereby undercut the huge rents that go to publishers every year.  It appears that the corporation has taken this further by attempting to build on the success of the iPad to deliver textbooks and other applications for young learners. Cecilia Kang of the Washington Post reports on the business approach taken by Apple in introducing a number of new approaches to delivering an interesting learning experience for learners.

There is a definite concern about the possible lock-in effect that would result from widespread adoption of the iPad and related software from Apple. Even assuming that this will be successful, one has to consider whether the quest to break the hold that textbook publishers have on education is worth breaking in exchange for the possibility of better education outcomes. I am inclined to believe that the delivery of education would be improved substantially and it is less likely that Apple would dominate for long since other manufacturers of tablet computers would be able to provide the same textbooks on their platforms.  An additional advantage is that the use of iPads and other tablets will call for innovative ways of delivering lessons. 

Politicians Take on Banning Pyjamas In Public

One of the paradoxes about the United States is that it is a nation that is truly given to respecting individual freedom and yet one also finds petty bureaucrats who try to limit choices in ridiculous ways. An MSNBC story covers the story in Louisiana where a state official is making proposals to stop people from wearing pajama pants in public. Now, one just wonders why such a ridiculous idea should be given any consideration. Wearing pyjamas in public is unsightly but I think that it is silly to put forth legislation to ban this and then have to fund the enforcement of that law.

To my mind, several cities have attempted to ban the appearance of individuals in public but I am unsure that the numbers of people engaged in this and the cost of enforcement make it even worthy of considering. My advise is for this guy to find soem other more important issues to dedicate his regulatory creativity on. Just look the other way when one person walks past you in the street. they are suppossed to live in a free country!

Diet Industry Under Pressure

If there is a trend in the globe today, it is that people question legitimately whether all financial institutions and instruments have any social value besides ensuring commissions and revenue for those who generate them. And while I understand that there are firms and individuals who are culpable for destroying value and harming clients, I am still clear that there are equally lucrative industries that are based on unverifiable myths. Reading this article a couple of days ago, it occurred to me that the slimming and dieting industry is one that sells products, books and services that do not only have dubious value but occasionally built on unsubstantiated scientific claims. 

Speaking of the weight loss "industry", I think that the use of celebrities to endorse products is not in itself objectionable. What I find ridiculous is that people are made to believe that a thirty day special programme would in itself lead to permanent shedding of unwanted weight. It is no surprise that a good proportion of those who successfully shed weight while on the plans do end up accumulating it all over again. In many instances, people take on diets based entirely on perceptions on what ideal weight should be and the preponderance of weight loss regimes suggests that this in itself is an industry that feeds its anxious clients incomplete information. Perhaps all firms in the industry should take pay based on their success rates. 

The reasonable response should be public education to ensure that individuals are able to make decisions based on evidence. That aside, there is need to deemphasize the idea that there is an epidemic obesity as I think that intervention by government will affect individual freedoms.

 

Economics of Income for Clergy

Some of the literature available suggests that the major determinants of a person's income would be a combination of skills level, scarcity of the skills and therefore the amount of competition available and perhaps the degree of specialization. Brian Palmer's article in Slate Magazine compares the nominal incomes of individuals who provide religious services in the United States. I am surprised by the revelation not only because I have never considered this issue but also because the piece reveals interesting differences in the institutional organization of the various faiths.

Clearly, judging from the income reported, it appears that it is more financially rewarding to be a Rabbi. In trying to explain the reason for this, it is notable that Rabbi's tend to have more training and are comparatively likely to have made higher investment in their professional life on account of the longer training duration. On the other hand it is also clear that due to their numbers, Christian churches are in competition with one another and this inevitably drives compensation for pastors towards the marginal wage. It would be useful to determine the standard deviation across wages for all professionals providing religious services in addition to finding out which specific faith has the highest inequality within its professional cadre. My guess would be that the protestant Christian churches would have the highest inequality because the pastors of the mega-churches are in a different league and are a minority.

To my mind, it can be stated respectfully that the provision of religious services across monotheistic religions is amenable to analysis through basic tools of price theory. This labour market shows sensitivity to the amount of skill and the professionals therein are also able to supplement income by taking up other employment. Finally, it is clear that competition with the distinct faiths affects the income for individual pastors.  

Are Nigerian Protests Justifiable?

This year started on a very difficult note for the government of Nigeria generally and for the president in particular. Not only is the country faced with a problem of armed groups attacking civilians ostensibly to enforce religious homogeneity, the government made a critical but unpopular decision in economic policy. The latter decision involved the suspension of subsidies on petroleum with the immediate result that prices went up substantially. To my mind though, it is most surprising that the public demonstrations throughout the major cities have been organized to try and force the government to reverse the economic policy while the press that I refer to has not reported equally public campaigns for government action to respond to the loss of lives from cowardly armed groups.

This blogger will say no more than that no government that is legitimately elected should succumb to political pressure emanating from groups driven by an ideology that holds no respect for life. Indeed, the government's feeble response to the bombings and murders is the main point of weakness that I see. Regarding the suspension of subsidies, it may well be that the timing is unfortunate but it is clearly sensible economic policy. Reading this story, it is evident that the protests that issued on account of rising fuel prices causes difficulty to some citizens but I am certain that the incidence of the benefits of a subsidy on petroleum fuel is taken by the car owners and middle class people. The claim that this resultant price hike harms the poorest is demonstrably untrue because the owners of vehicles in this country are unlikely to be the indigent. Besides my regret in the damage to property and the risks faced by law enforcement officers, I think that this is an urban middle class bawling for subsidies at the expense of poorer Nigerians.

The moral of the story: there is never a right time to pull back subsidies even if in most cases, abolishing subsidies is the right economic policy. 

Truth About Japanese Economy

Judging from the surfeit of press and other commentary on Japan, one would get the erroneous impression that following the joint collapse of Japanese financial institutions and property markets in the late 1990's, that economy has remained perpetually in limbo.  In this article, Eamon Fingleton provides proper perspective to the issue through reminders that perception is starkly different from reality. While I have never visited Japan, most of what I watch shows that the citizens of that country enjoy a very high standard of living.

While it is true that Japanese corporations that dominated financial and technology markets ceded their position to other corporations, the economic adjustment within Japan did not cause a collapse. True, the rate of growth has not been high, but Japanese incomes have kept an upward creep and in some areas, the quality of technology and other services available within Japan are the enviable standards. While being cautious about Eamon's claims, it is still relevant to mention that Japan's early growth was sufficiently sound to ensure that the painful adjustments due to the property and bank crashes did not devastate its citizens. in short, Japan may not have caught up with the United States but its standards of living are still high and other fast growing countries would accomplish a lot by just getting to where Japan is. 

I am less sanguine about the argument that the citizens took a conscious decision to keep very low population growth. It is clear that the demographic position as it exists would soon have adverse effects on the growth of that country. It may well be that its economic policies were mostly sound but the desire to maintain strict racial homogeneity may be attractive social and cultural policy but is surely disastrous economic policy. Its time for Japan to review that because this is perhaps its most pressing policy failure today.     

Sports Organizations and Corruption

The title of this blog post came to me as I read this article and tried to relate it to other instances where strong evidence of corruption in international sport has been revealed. It addresses the disclosure that an official of a boxing institution was curiously present in the front during the contest between Amir Khan and Lamont Peterson some weeks ago. Khan's team alleges that this official may have adversely influenced the judges.

To be honest, notwithstanding my reference to to FIFA in this post, I am generally suspicious of conspiracy theories. However, it is clear that the incentives for improper behavior are clearly available in lucrative sports disciplines. It seems that officials at the boxing match under reference acted in a less than transparent manner and this has called to question the decision of the fight.

I agree now that incentives for corruption in private bodies is high and that the international sports organizations should be a lot more transparent in their financial and contractual affairs. Granted that a majority of them are private organizations and therefore subject to scrutiny by their membership alone, I am inclined to the belief that their monopoly status adds to the opacity.  

Why Expensive Musical Instruments Do Not Sound Better

There are several ways in which conventional wisdom and expert opinion is very sensible advice but my reading of Freakonomics has led me to agree that what is the consensus and unquestioned wisdom is frequently plainly wrong and based on no evidence. Ian Sample of the Guardian writes about the results of a modest experiment with persuasive results that tested the claim that antique musical instruments (specifically violins) have a superior sound to more modern versions. Granted that there are limitations to the experiment principally related to the blindfolding of the players together with the small sample of the instruments, I am persuaded that its results are valid.

What the results show is that the instruments that are highly valued as having been created by a master such as Antonio Stradivari do not produce superior sound that it detectable to expert players. As the story states, these unique instruments are very highly valued by collectors and performers and are the prices are often justified on account of their superior quality of sound. What the results imply is that the less valuable instruments are probably not inferior in this respect. To my mind, the value of the Stradivarius instrument is most probably based on their rarity and scarcity. In addition, most of the owners of these antique instruments are very capable musicians whose skill may give the impression that that quality of performance is produced by the rare instrument. Instead, its just that the skill is the real magic.

These findings trace the continuing realization that most claims such as the superior taste of expensive wines, performance of maestros and now the sound quality of antique musical instruments, sometimes fails when subjected to randomized testing.