Atul Gawande on Finding and Executing Ideas

"But finding a good idea is apparently not all that hard. Finding an entrepreneur who can execute a good idea is a different matter entirely. " Atul Gawande in The Checklist Manifesto p.171.

Pankaj Ghemawat's World is Not Flat

The orthodoxy today has it that the world is integrating at a furious pace on account of growing market influences and technology is making borders completely irrelevant. I have been surprised with the fact that this is taken as a given by businesses and even some politicians. That was until I read this book by Pankaj Ghemawat  and to my consternation realized that the flat world ideas that circulate are grossly overstated and misleading.

And it is relevant that this academic is not only highly regarded and qualified to address that subject but is keenly aware of the benefits that would issue from increased globalization. It is just that he is alert to the fact that having plucked the lowest hanging fruits, everyone seems to be taking the superficial level of integration as real. As the indicators that he adopts show, the world is far less globalized than even leaders of firms that operate on a global scale are aware of. In this interview with Leslie D'Monte, he observes that "there is social pressure to believe that the world is flat", and that has prevented dispassionate examination of the subject.

Bucksbaum Bequest Credits Couple and Capitalism

I am an unqualified admirer of capitalism and freedom not only because there is no better alternative but mostly because such an alternative would hardly emerge.  A very substantial and well-considered bequest by Carolyn and Mathew Bucksbaum to the University of Chicago's medical school well demonstrates the immense social and moral value of capitalism. As stated by Dirk Johnson in this NYT story,  the bequest of US$ 42 million of money earned is to be dedicated to research and teaching medical practitioners to treat patients with empathy. This idea behind the bequest  Bucksbaum Institute for Clinical Excellence is informed by the experience of Mrs. Bucksbaum at the hands of a less-empathetic doctor.

No doubt the couple are worthy of a national award from the President but the main lesson for me is how effective real capitalism is in channeling funds towards causes that nobody pays for. And it is quite laudable that the couple did not throw a small portion of that money into a lobby group to ensure that government pays for that need. A story like this becomes useful for demonstrating the fact that while markets may be amoral, high-minded philanthropy such as this is only possible with capitalism. Capitalism rocks!

Moving Faster Than Light?

One of the things about science is that it is based on a set of very well-understood and predictable laws. Discoveries about the laws of physics do not come too often anymore because most of the fundamental principles are well understood and applied. Of those laws, the constant on the maximum speed of light in a vacuum is taught without question at high school level.  A couple of days ago however, the Opera laboratory publicized results suggesting that they had conducted experiments that suggest that it is possible for some particles to surpass this constant.

This is still being tested but its implications, as stated in the article in the Guardian here, are undoubtedly profound. To start with, if the results are verified, then it would require a review of the known laws of physics. New hypotheses would emerge and this result would even create the possibility that time machines and short cut dimensions in space do exist. My strong hunch is that an error may have occurred but its worth waiting for verification. On the other hand, the professors at the Opera lab may have earned a future Nobel prize in physics.

Turkish Club Opens Up to Better Fans

Depending on what one reads, the conventional wisdom driven by sports journalists is that the typical sportsman earns too much money and does not behave well-enough to be an examples to the younger people. Predictably, this view goes unquestioned and is trumpeted again and again whenever a player is found to have committed indiscretions whether in public or on the pitch. My view though is that more often, the sports fan and especially the soccer fun in the leagues of Europe exhibit far worse behaviour. They are not called out for that behaviour because the sports associations and the teams often rely on their continuing to buy expensive tickets for matches and supporting clubs through the purchase of merchandise.

Fenerbahce, a Turkish soccer club was condemned to play a match in an empty stadium following crowd trouble. That club instead turned this situation around by distributing free tickets to women and children by banning all males aged 12 years and above. As reported on Louise Taylor's blog here, the match went ahead and the crowd turned up in full support of the teams with no crowd trouble. I see this as an extremely intelligent way for the club to try and build a fan base among women and children while denying trouble making men an opportunity to watch the matches live. 

Clearly, this cannot work throughout a season of more than 25 games but it is an important symbolic gesture to a new audience. That the racist chanters and violent mobs were kept from the stadium was victory in itself. 

Roland Fryer Jr. Becomes a MacArthur Genius

The MacArthur Foundation presents very generous awards to professionals in diverse fields to enable them to extend their work. This involves an annual payment of US$ 100,000 per year for five consecutive years. I am glad to note that Roland Fryer Jr. is one of the recipients this year especially because he does wonderfully insightful work by use of the powerful tools of economics to investigate issues of race in the United States. Prof. Fryer's work stands in a good place for his professional interest tend to cover important areas in which the findings could inform direct policy in areas such as education and use of experiments. Congratulations to the 22 professionals. More brain power to all of them.

Is China Really As Powerful as the US?

Judging from the immense trouble that president Obama of the United States is having in getting politicians to work behind a coherent and mutually agreeable plan, one can safely assume that the country is bound to delay recovery and have its preeminence in the world eroded. This state of political discord has not only led to concern about the functional health of that political system but that this undermines the nation's ability to deal with big problems related to large deficits and long-term problems in financial undertakings.

In spite of the undoubted disfunction in the political process and its effects on the economy, I maintain that the US still has some time before any economy, china included, can get to surpass it in factors of material economic and military dominance. Simon Johnson, writes in this article that a book that is due for publication later in the fall suggests that China may have already surpassed the United States in world dominance. To be clear, the author of that book, Arvind Subramaniam, is a vey competent academic and his views ought to be given serious reflections before reply. That notwithstanding, I still applaud China's very successful development experiment over three decades but it is unlikely that it has surpassed the United States yet.

Looking at the World Bank's latest data on Gross National Income (GNI) on  a per capita basis still leaves China at one tenth of US equivalents in nominal terms. to my mind, given the extreme importance of total income in determining dominance in scientific, commercial and cultural affairs, I think that China's dominance may be real but it is not yet close to the United States today. I will read the book after its publication and comment on the claims and data deployed to support the claim.  

Yasheng Huang Tells The India Vs China Story

Many comparisons of the development experiment between China and India and pitch conveniently on the side that commentators favour. As a result, there is very little clarity of thought about why China has indubitably raced ahead of India in economic growth, notwithstanding the absence of liberalization on the political affairs in China. Many people therefore readily assume that India's main problem seems to be its extremely open political system which makes it a disadvantage in terms of quick execution of development plans. Yasheng Huang's presentation to explain the differences is a tour de force in the TED talk below on that subject in which confusion and cliche's have endured.

 

As Huang maintains, it is a fact that India has not done so poorly but has been compared with a ver successful China. It is equally instructive that the slow reform in social policy that would register achievements for India's women is a critical barrier to its ability to compete.  

Planning Fallacy

David Brooks of the NYT bases his last article on a book to be published soon that is written  by by Daniel Kahnemann. As David sees it, the book is an injunction against the very solid belief in planning and the general tendency to assume that what is planned is carried out and that the results of a planned process are superior. He uses the lessons from the book to analyse the goings-on in the US today and concludes that the nature of political leadership means that problems must be tackled even when solutions are not at hand and where government intervention is not likely to yield a quick or sure solution. A good piece from a journalist whose articles often predictably start from objective observations and then end up with a conservative pill as the solution.

Why Terror is a Poor Political Tactic

This is a significant week for all people concerned with public affairs for it sent minds back to the dreadful event in New York a decade ago. For all the evil, that event necessarily changed many people whether believers in freedom or not because it suddenly put those who favour wide freedoms on the defensive. Ten years later, the guy who took responsibility for the attack on the US has been taken out and everyone reflections on the extent to which all the predictions about impending woe have come to fruition or not.

To my mind, it is very clear that notwithstanding the ability of terror groups to harm people here and there, the whole world accepts that perhaps we either are all stronger than we imagined or the terror groups not as formidable as was imagined. Placing facts as they are, most people ceded freedoms at airports and accepted statist interpretations of the events with minimum fuss.In spite of the initial success in scaring people to surrender freedom, few people would say that mass murderers intent on causing terror have won. And yet the missing piece is why it has all come to nothing and the terror groups are nowhere near achievement of whatever amorphous goals that they claim to advance. 

Steven Pinker in this well-composed article provides an incisive view for why groups that deploy terror and fear as a political tactic almost always fail. His conclusion is that these groups gain recognition but that terror tends to feed on itself with groups collapsing through overreach and senseless violence. 

Levitt on Adoption

When I started writing this blog, I promised myself to try and make comments as opposed to merely linking to other blogs or articles. Below is a speech by Steven Levitt about his family's experience with adoption and its outcomes. This truly speaks for itself.

HT: Freakonomics Blog

Quoting Kenneth Elzinga

"The truly influential economist is one who affects how economists view fundamental problems in their own discipline and affects how non-specialists come to view the world of economic reality." Kenneth Elzinga.  

Widening The Pool of Donors

Because I think that many market arrangements are amoral, it is understandable that market transactions sometimes yield results that many consider absurd or even undesirable. Again, as a libertarian, my instrument of analysis is the degree to which those transactions were predicated on individual freedom for the parties. the area of bio-ethics is loaded with emotion and delicate sensibilities regarding how human beings may sell body parts or even price and transact on products that allow for conception of children.

Reading an article in NYT today, i was struck by how people assume that such transactions are free of trade-offs. Jacqueline Mroz writes about the call to regulate through limitation, the number of times that a single donor of sperm may b allowed to conceive babies. Starting with the fact that some concerned parents realized that the a number of donors have fathered a large number of children, they state that limits are demonstrably necessary in order to prevent the possibility of incest. 

While I fully understand the concern that may emerge from in-breeding, I am not sure that this endeavor to limit donations is useful or intelligent. To start with, the real possibility of mutations arising from such relationships is undeclared and that is perhaps it is inestimably low. In addition, I am not sure that the reason that a small number of donors have such a high rate is possibly explained by the demand for specific characteristics that these individuals bear. Finally, there is always the possibility that the donated items may be exported across countries to ensure that the likelihood of mutations is reduced and diversity of genetic resources expanded. The approach  being led by sledgehammer regulation is not as smart as imagined.        

Coase Theorem for Wealthy Londoners

My view about the limits to property rights is that all individuals with legitimate rights should explore all means for use of their property with no hindrance. As I read this article by Sarah Lyall, it came to me that a number of property owners in London are choosing to construct pools, theaters and other amenities underground. At first glance, it looks as if this is inordinately expensive but it is just possible because property costs are high and it would not be possible to make acquisitions to allow for the lavish extensions that these owners desire. Because of the limits to extension of property into the sky, these fairly affluent people are choosing to dig underground in order to add to the facilities available to them.

Apart from the illustration of the fact that planning and zoning rules could lead to absurd consequences, I think that this situation reveals that these neighbours should be schooled in the Coase Theorem. Indeed, the excavation and construction creates inconveniences and burden to people in those neighborhoods. And yet, the rise of suits merely suggests that appropriate rules for governing downward expansion are not properly developed. I have not property considered the means for reaching a workable formula but the suits will merely lead to bureaucratic and stiff regulations to the chagrin of all. 

Vettel is Not All Time Best in Formula 1

Journalism is a profession that has immense value for bloggers and it has been the basis upon which a large proportion of this blog has based analysis or commentary. Many people seem to think that it is only in the area of political coverage does partisanship overtake objectivity but I consider that sports journalism too is especially prone to commentary that includes exaggeration or even outright misstatements.

Take as an the example of this piece by David Coulthard, a retired driver on the Formula 1 circuit, writing in the Daily Telegraph. It is true that during the last race, the Red Bull team for which Sebastian Vettel is a driver took the top two positions on the podium as they have dominated racing this season year and the last. The performance of that team has been very good and it has been the most consistent over the last couple of years. That notwithstanding, the article gives the impression that Sebastian Vettel's dominance is so pronounced that he is altogether worthy of the consideration of the crown of the best driver ever.

I disagree with this for the reason that comparisons across time as David Coulthard makes should of necessity come with a caveat that time references are tricky because of change of rules and circumstances. Secondly, it strikes me as odd that he chooses to concentrate criticism of Michael Schumacher and Lewis Hamilton as drivers who supposedly rely on the ability to steer very firast and therefore inferior to the more rounded Vettel. That criticism is allowed but is too limited to the supposed faults of two drivers alone that it makes it unworthy of much consideration.  Knowing as swell that the writer raced against Michael and obviously came out second best means that he is unlikely to be as fully objective. 

To my mind, he should be aware or honest to state that the consistent change in regulations makes the sports particularly prone to shifts in dominance that may have nothing to do with the capability of individual drivers. Formula 1 is also peculiar in the sense that drivers are hostage to the reliability and consistency of their teams. As it is today, the Red Bull team has a superior car in stability and fitness for the rules and the rest are catching up. To conclude, while I defer to his opinions ideas because I have been close to but never driven a Formula 1 machine, I am also reasonably certain that the differences in capability between the drivers is much smaller than that between the cars. Formula 1 is at least as much about  engineering as much as it is about the and capability of individual drivers. That explains why drivers in the same team tend to finish in roughly same positions. One would expect David Coulthard to know that or ask for data to prove that.

Burying Doha Development Agenda

I must admit that for a long time, I have wondered whether the World Trade Organization's Doha Development Agenda wold yield its expected fruit. Reading a number of articles by those in the know, it appears that the Doha Round was all along set for massive disappointment and failure. Jean-Pierre Lehmann writes in the FT (gated) and openly calls for an end to the pretense to end and for Doha to be buried because its long been dead.

I have closely examined and participated in a couple of mMinisterial conferences but I was not always sure that the outcome would be such a mess. With the benefit of hindsight, it is clear that this Trade rRound was bound to be long and difficult on account of the different expectations between member states. I am sometimes left aghast when I hear that there is a developing country and developed country divide with China, iIndia and Brazil being the torch bearers for the developing nations. The poor definition of sides is part of the problem because it encourages the argument of victimhood into debates with expectations of market opening by the "northern" countries.

Jean-Pierre Lehmann's assessment is plausible but I disagree with the claim that fact that Pascal Lamy's exit would in itself render the WTO's future as safe. As a custodian of the affairs of the WTO round on behalf of the member states, Lamy's demeanour has been exemplary and the problem here is with the intransigence of the members as opposed to the secretariat of the WTO. I am not sure that the WTO can be saved if the Doha Round fails completely especially since the piecemeal approach to trade reforms is the "modus operandi" for many of its members. As a system of exchanging concessions, the WTO seems to be reaching its limits and there's nobody to blame but is members. 

Why Blame Powerpoint?

I learnt from watching this Ted Talk by Julian Treasure that silence and listening is an invaluable, if increasingly rare, skill. As a result, I try to keep at least three minutes of absolute silence every day and dedicate that time to letting my mind go through small thoughts. A few days ago, in my musing, I wondered why one I always hear more calls for banning things than for letting people decide for themselves.

Looking at an article in the Guardian, I received an email link to this piece by Julie Bindel covering the quest by a determined political group that wants to ban the use of Powerpoint in Switzerland. I agree too that some of the worst presentations that I have sat through were by people who misuse of Powerpoint while thinking that flashing pictures and flying bullets on the screen is replacement for intelligible presentation. It may well be that the existence of Powerpoint reduces the cost of producing full colour gibberish. Despite that fact, it seems that this political party is mistaken in thinking that use of flip charts is a solution. tTo start with, it is obviously paternalistic for anyone to insist on another's use of flip charts in addition to the fact that this solution fails to reckon with the fact that poor presentation is often a sign of poor public speaking skills and cluttered thinking. In my view, one cannot resolve that merely by changing presentation tools.

This reminded me that it is often much easier to build a political case around what should be banished from society than what decisions should be reversed. To my mind, it would be helpful for people who sit through pPowerpoint presentations to remind presenters that colour and theatrics do not a good presentation make. pPerhaps it would help for someone to just stop a presenter and ask, "Assume that you did not have the graphics, what would you want me to know?"    

No More World Records for Women

The World Athletics Championships, which I call the truncated Olympics will begin in the South Korean city of Daegu in less than 24 hours. This competition is held every second year and in my view, represents the a more accurate view of capability in sporting events than the popular and congested spectacle called the Olympic Games. I was musing about what the probability of world records being broken until I encountered a fantastic piece of sports and science journalism by Edward McClelland in the Slate Magazine.

It tackles the issue of doping in sports today and traces the story of the effect of steroids and related substances on the performance of individual athletes. An interesting point that emerges is that while both male and female athletes have a history of doping in athletics, the effects of doping onf female athletes seems to have endured. It is a curious fact that the average record in athletics events for women is 21 years old while comparable figures for men is one third of that. It raises the interesting finding that in the days before detection could occur, female athletes gained a disproportionately large "premium" from doping than male athletes did. The explanation is plausible because most of the hormones used are male hormones that appear to give a larger boost to women before the reacheds a point of diminished returns. 

The argument is very sensibly laid and the fact that male records in similar events have fallen many times more than the equivalent for females lends this theory a lot of explanatory power. However, I am sure that the abolition of the existing records to ensure that they are broken again is an inferior choice. pPerhaps the IAAF should design an award system based on how close any athlete gets to the record that has stood for longer. Besides, while it is justifiable to view suspiciously some records that have endured for long, it would be naive to assume that today's male athletes are not cheating in a way that is not possible for female athletes to do. 

Why Fifa is Corrupt

The title to this blog post would not surprise anyone who knows a little about the politics of international soccer. many English newspapers have written extensively about the lack of transparency in the game especially after the curious award of the next two tournaments to Russia and Qatar. It is not as if the world federation of national soccer administration just became corrupt when it's Executive Committee overlooked a very strong bid and denied England the opportunity to host the tournament. To my mind, the fact that FIFA is a strict monopoly is also part of the reason why it is corrupt.

As Brian Phillips traces the corruption through a historical view, I consider that FIFA's monopoly status does make it particularly attracted to exclusive dealing as a standard business approach.    The organization earns a up to 87% of its finances from the Wold Cup tournaments held every four years and which involves political bidding by countries trying to get into a beauty contest and related underhand dealings in order to be host. this structure is typical of monopolies which first asserts itself by choosing safe avenues for revenue and does not offer the biggest asset to bidding through auctions. It would make perfect sense for the organization to auction the right to hosting tournaments to countries and have the prize go to the highest bidder. That it will not subject to a market test its best assets is evidence of the contentment of monopolies.

It is also worthy of notice that while the corruption in the assignment of hosting and marketing rights has a vicarious effect on fans and the the global audience, it is worrisome that the trend shows a steady decline in the democratic credentials of hosts. And yes, while even the citizens of non-democratic countries are soccer fans, their governments are more likely to have wasted public money in hosting the tournaments and paying bribes to secure those rights. It is clear that FIFA has great potential to grow both revenues and raise public welfare but that is not the least concern when governments can underwrite the costs of tournaments while FiIFA's bosses keep the big money and the glory.   

  

Padraig Backs Tiger's Return

http://www.free-extras.com/images/golf_ball-2698.htm

I had initially thought that Tiger Woods would resume his dominant position very quickly after resolving his personal problems. Its clear now that I was wrong about the timing but I still maintain that superlative performance for which Tiger was known would not disappear in a flash. Obviously that view is not considered sensible in light of the player's performance over the last couple of tournaments. I am glad to see that Padraig Harrington, acknowledges here that Tiger's performance is far better than what the rankings show and is cautiously optimistic that Tiger is still capable of breaking the record of 18 Golf Major wins.

That claim does not sound unreasonable to me despite the caution behind the voice. For the same reasons that I mentioned here, I am sure that Tiger Woods is not to be considered a marginal player. He will win more majors and I would place a wager on his breaking jack Nicklaus' record.