3-D Printing is Not Alchemy

Any person who can read this blog post is aware of the fact that 3-D printing has been demonstrated to be able to make usable copies of prosthetic limbs, useful materials and even a firearm. And yet most of the press coverage about the potential of 3-D printing is obviously overstated. reading many commentaries, one would get the impression that this technology renders every physical object subject to production through 3-D printing and therefore that it will have a profound effect on manufacturing and virtually all industrial processes.

Carl Bass, writing in Wired here, adopts a more circumspect approach to the claims and goes through a detailed explanation of 3-D printing. Among the most important points he makes is that the explosion in the use of the technology is still constrained by the fact that this technology seems to be in an experimental stages. But the most profound statement is that 3-D is unlikely to reach mass use and thereby wipe our industrial manufacturing because of the economics of the technology. In particular, the author argues that in scaling up models, 3-D there is a significant cost barrier because the cost appreciates with scale. Calling this the Third Power of 3-D printing, it is empirically established that the time, costs and material required scales up to the third power. Thus a proper business model dos not exist yet and so it is constrained by volume. 

This means the technology is unlikely to displace conventional manufacturing and will be used at small scale by individuals. In essence, 3-D printing will improve over time but is not the equivalent of alchemy for manufacturing.