Many sports fans are today aware of the fact that statistical analysis of sports events has become common. This often manifests itself in the application of statistical techniques to purchase players and even in choice of play during set pieces during play. the one place in which the reasoning with data is more overt and subject to clear assessments is in the development of predictive models for ranking teams in a tournament.
A couple of articles written by Eoin O'Connell here and here in Significance Magazine presents a clear narrative on the author's reasoning about the pools, the form teams, and determinants of qualification towards the finals. This model is fascinating because his predictions correctly names seven of eight teams that qualify from the pool stages. While the predictor model is narrated, it is easy to see how the logic of the model worked and how it turned out where results did not go as predicted. Going towards the semi-finals and finals, the second piece states clearly that New Zealand team has the advantage of form and superior performance during the pool that makes the team less likely to lose. the model proves correct though the Wales replaced Ireland as the other finalist. The narrative is impressive as it highlights a systematic and approach to analysis of the games with data used to strengthen the stories. What one concludes is that home advantage and team form is a hugely powerful predictor of the outcome.
A couple of articles written by Eoin O'Connell here and here in Significance Magazine presents a clear narrative on the author's reasoning about the pools, the form teams, and determinants of qualification towards the finals. This model is fascinating because his predictions correctly names seven of eight teams that qualify from the pool stages. While the predictor model is narrated, it is easy to see how the logic of the model worked and how it turned out where results did not go as predicted. Going towards the semi-finals and finals, the second piece states clearly that New Zealand team has the advantage of form and superior performance during the pool that makes the team less likely to lose. the model proves correct though the Wales replaced Ireland as the other finalist. The narrative is impressive as it highlights a systematic and approach to analysis of the games with data used to strengthen the stories. What one concludes is that home advantage and team form is a hugely powerful predictor of the outcome.
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