Fall of the Dictators

Apologies to my very few readers but today's post is among the most political that you will read here. While I make no claims to having been particularly inspired, I think that I should state some thoughts about the ouster of Hosni Mubarak of Egypt late last week. In addition, its far safer to speak about the events that occurred in Egypt last week because outcomes are pretty clear now. 

In my view, the rise of such an unexpected event with the tensions and uncertainties made a mockery of pundits generally and the intelligence institutions because not only were they unable to predict the start of these events but seemed unprepared to deal with it once it started. As if one required a reminder, no despot can ever be completely immune to a rebellion and ouster. Indeed this is proof that most dictatorships are facades for very weak structures and leave no option for structured exits. As Hosni Mubarak just found out,  a 30 year dictatorship would collapse in 18 days.  As an absolute believer in human liberty, I applaud the youth and aged of most populous nation in the Arab world for saying enough and remaining steadfast before a frowning dictator. 

As I debate with myself what all this means, I am compelled to recognize that some lives were lost and therefore the price has been very high. A reluctant hero such as Wael Ghoneim has been identified and celebrated for his use of social media to keep information going and diverse people motivated to do their bit. On the other hand, I think that critical as it has been, the place of social media is probably being overstated in the outcomes. The existence of structural strains made it indubitable that some kind of release would be sought and the thinking being will deploy social media, among other tools to get positive change going.  

This story is not complete unless one takes into account the very measured response from the Egyptian military which effectively asked their commander in chief to take a break. Their role will yet unfold but the outcome would have been far more painful with more lives lost had the military chosen to stand with the despot. One would hesitate to state what would result from the unstoppable force of public demand against stubborn despots with lots of arms. My plea is that they remember that the Egyptian people have tasted freedom and would like to expand it.  Its always a good thing to see a despot fall and with two having fallen in the space of a month is bliss.