Buy Soccer Players Now

One of the most fascinating things for sports fans is how the main the managers and coaches make decisions for recruitment of players. related to this is how fans and enthusiastic team owners judge the performance of players. Recently, I read this book by Simon Kuper and Stefan Szymanski and confirmed a number of things about the management and economics of soccer. The authors use as data analysis approach to answer a number of questions that many soccer fans and club managers consider as obvious.

Among the nuggets of wisdom is that the choice of players is not as objective as should be because clubs overpay for blond players and those who have performed well in a major international tournaments.  with this in mind, I have been setting my eyes to see whether managers will again be fooled by performances during the World Cup tournament in South Africa in June. Arsene Wenger, the manager of the Arsenal Football Club has just confirmed that he has commenced negotiations for players and expects to conclude discussion before commencement of that tournament. Indeed, he states publicly that his intention is to avoid the inflated prices that would result from performances during the tournament. the authors mention that this is one of the mangers who trusts data and his economics reasoning above the conventional wisdom. What surprises me is that there will be the inevitable scramble for a few players who perform well after that tournament while the information shows that that is a poor predictor of longer-term performance.

Full of PowerPoint

One thing for which I give credit for professionals in the military is that they understand the need for clear communication. I am not surprised therefore to read here that the US military uses PowerPoint presentations a lot in explaining strategy and for information across ranks. And yet the story emphasizes that a number of officers are frustrated with the uses of PowerPoint as a tool because it fails to capture detailed connections between separate ideas.

As I see it, one is bound to suffer frustration with a tool such as PowerPoint for a number of reasons. the first one is that many people who use the facility forget that it does not dispense with the need to communicate clearly. And so choice of flashy slides is good but that still requires that the presenter should understand the substance. So I cannot be as sure as some people are that Power point is the problem though I have seen enough people forget that it is a tool for communication that should be used with a lot of forethought.  I favour power point in situations where there is limited time as it may help one to construct the presentation by thinking in a sequence. It may just be that the tool is inappropriate for certain levels of communication.

My Forgotten Mathematician

In the last blog post here, I referred to an article in the Guardian that classified the author's mathematicians of all time. In addition, I commented on the fact that there were a number of mathematicians that i would include in the list in addition to mentioning the paucity of female mathematicians and higher order thinkers on that list. Having reviewed that hurriedly-written blog post, I note immediately that I mentioned two mathematicians that would fit in that list. This was an incomplete list because John Nash Jr. and John Von Neumann are contemporary scholars of the subject and whose works are largely related.

So I would like to add the mathematician known as the "Father of Algebra" whose contributions to the study and documentation of mathematics are enormous. Besides contributions to algebra, cartography and astronomy, this individual is credited with the introduction of Indian numerals and the decimal number system to mathematics. The significance of the decimal system and algebra makes him worthy of as much recognition as many on the list on which my last post was based. To my mind though, I am most pleased that one of my favourite words, "Algorithm" is derived from the name Al-Kwarizmi, the scholar from the House of Wisdom in old Baghdad. His contributions were recognized by the Soviet Union in the issuance of the commemorative stamp for Al-Kwarizmi's estimated 1200^th birthday.

Guardian's List of Best Mathematicians

A couple of weeks ago, Alex Bellos put together this interesting list of mathematicians whose works he considered revolutionary. I notice that the list is merely placed in a chronological order but its contents are still interesting for a number of reasons. First is the fact that Pythagoras is recognized as one of the earliest mathematicians whose discoveries are still relevant and recognizable for students in formative school years in spite of the fact that most of his papers were lost and none is available for study today.

Secondly, it is noteworthy that the list has included a woman who would be recognized perhaps by only students of history of science or pure mathematicians. Political correctness aside, it is essential that the role that women have played in development of higher order thought be acknowledged purely as a matter of historical record. Hypatia is worthy of being on the list.

Thirdly, I recognize a good number of contemporary mathematicians starting with Paul Erdos and Georg Cantor whose works would be readily available today even if a very small number would be able to plough through them. Unsurprisingly, Grisha Perelman is on the list and I am sure that his recent contributions and reaction to certain awards ensure that he will be in many lists for a long time.

Asking myself who I would add to the list makes a number of names run through my mind. Among them is Teano, who was Pythagoras' wife and co-thinker in the academy. More recently, I would highly consider John Nash Jr. and his colleague John Von Neumann who made the subject of game theory an important part of modern thinking and scholarship.  

Confronting African Involvement in The Slave Trade

Many people who read dispassionate accounts of slavery are invariably appalled and shocked by the cruelty that accompanied the commoditization and sale of human beings by others. The phenomenon of slavery is one that makes me take a step back to ask where ethics and markets intersect. And any knowledgeable person also knows that the US paid a huge price in the Civil War before the issue was resolved in part. Many people in the US accept the moral error that led to the enslavement of Africans shipped onto the continent and were owned by a number of families and individuals.  An enduring though impractical argument has been that some reparations are due to the descendants of the slaves on account of this moral crime.

In this article, Henry Louis Gates Jr. has confronted the less acknowledged side to the story of the huge market of slavery before abolition in Europe and the American continents. That truth is that a large number of African kingdoms willingly conducted raids and built fortunes through running huge slave markets. As the article reiterates, most of the slave merchants simply appeared on the ports and few ever entered into the interior in large numbers. Understandably, this complicates the demand for reparations because all of Africa has cast itself as a victim of the great injustice based entirely on racial prejudice. Still, I find that while Henry Louis Gates Jr. has exposed the ability of Africans to stand eyeball to eyeball with the contradiction with the main powers from Europe bearing most of the shame. The missing story is that of Arab collaboration in the slavery movement especially in the North and eastern coasts of Africa. To my mind, too often the equally brutal role of the Arabs in Africa is easily forgotten or subsumed in the story about the transatlantic slavery. Unlike the professor, I am less confident that President Obama's involvement will end the blame game and so I only wager that the history be taught with high fidelity to facts.

Rent or Purchase

Granted that the discipline of economics assumes rationality on the part of most individuals most of the time, there are still a large number of myths and legends that inform people's action in markets. Reading through David Leonhardt's piece in the NYT reminds me of one that is most pervasive. Several months after the economic crises that engulfed most of the economies whose citizens earn high incomes, it is still taken as an article of faith that home ownership is much preferable to renting at any time.  I find that it is just so difficult to convince people that rental and ownership are alternatives that are dependent on the circumstances both of the individual and the overall market conditions.

In the piece, the author states that rental versus outright ownership requires a rough calculation of the ratio of rental to that of purchase. While it is not an iron law, it easily demonstrates that by dividing the purchase prices to the annual cost of rental is a good guide about the better decision to make. An index beyond 20 shows that the rental may be a better decision on the margin than ownership. So the instinct to purchase and be a home owner is strong but that should not make one opt to own a house by all means. And this is not advise that only favours the individual who is considering purchase because the same index suggests that an owner may sell to an unwise buyer when the ratio would call for renting instead.  

Bring No iPad Here

If someone asked a question about which state would try to impede the use of the iPad by its citizens, I would not think that Israel would be it. And yet this story in the Washington Post reports that the Middle East's most astute government in economic policy has just done that. I do not fully accept Israel's policies in the political field but its economics and approach to technology is something that I have lauded here before. And that is why I find the reason given for refusing to allow entry of the iPad into the country completely puzzling for its wrongheadedness. What's really happening?  

A Study on African Land Deals

A while ago, I wrote to blog posts here and here on the trend for corporations to approach governments in Africa to allow investments in agriculture through long-term leases. As I called, it then, this land rush was a new area and one in which the investment model was particularly susceptible to local politics and related political risks. I may not have stressed sufficiently but it was clear that this was one area of international public affairs that had not been more incisively examined.

I have just encountered a most professional attempt to by the IIED here to create an understanding of the phenomenon of huge investments in farming through land leases in Africa. The study confirms my thinking that the political risks are real and will ultimately determine the returns to the investments in addition to the fact that the credibility of the governments is questionable because the contracts are highly secretive. This lack of transparency undermines the good faith that citizens of these nations may have for a new investor.

Less convincing is the suggestion that governments should ask hard questions of investors in addition to determining whether land acquisition is meant for speculative purposes. My view is that most governments will have an incentive to record any new investment and that added to the lack of disclosure on the agreements raises the likelihood that the agreements will be skewed and the lease terms will be very low. Overall, the dearth of information on the subject makes the report immensely informative even if its prescriptions are not wholly palatable to me.

Absurdity of Gene Patenting Demonstrated

Following my blog post here on the judgement that gave a much appreciated push-back against broad patenting of genes, I have come across a number of other comments on the implications. Ben Goldacre's article in the Guardian makes me revisit the question because he cites a data-based study that demonstrated the absurdity of allowing such broad ownership over pre-existing genetic matter in humans. In short, the paper that he cites suggests that the patenting of this single genetic sequence makes it impossible to conduct research not only on breast cancer but on a wide number of other genes in every human being. In short, the genetic sequence and its components occur so regularly that it extends to virtually every gene in every single human being.  If one needed evidence from data and basic science that this form of patenting is absurd, then there it is.

Hidden Subsidy and Corporate Perks

One of the most interesting things about any tax allowances is that it does not necessarily eliminate that tax but most likely would transfer it to a separate payer. This fact has been aptly demonstrated in this NYT article by Richard Schmalbek and Jay Soled. The essence of their correct argument is that the decision to allow corporations to deduct the purchase price of baseball tickets from their taxes has not only altered the nature of the crowds attending sports events in the US, but has also driven the inexorable upward trend in ticket prices.

The complete argument goes that these firms are less sensitive to the prices of tickets because they can make total deductions of the prices from their overall tax liability. The unintended consequence is that best seats for sports events are purchased by these competing corporations, with the higher prices of seats conditioning sports franchises to create profits while reducing the sizes of the sports arenas. In spite of the soundness of the economic reasoning in the piece, I am less convinced that the reform of this distortion is necessary primarily to alter the composition of the individuals attending games. The best argument is that government ought not to redistribute taxes through firms that are trying to entertain their clients.

This case of applied economics shows how difficult it is to design tax breaks and how the resulting distortions  can have indefensible consequences.  

Gary Becker on Interest Groups

"The idea that interest groups can derive specific, concentrated benefits from the political system—yes, that's a very important insight," he says. "But you can have competing interest groups. Look at the automobile industry. The domestic manufacturers in Detroit want protectionist policies. But the auto importers want free trade. So they fight it out. Now sometimes in these fights the dark forces prevail, and sometimes the forces of light prevail. But if you have competing interest groups you don't end up with a systematic bias toward bad policy."- Gary Becker 

Push-back on Genes as Property

As a start, I support the idea of individual or corporate property rights as an irreducible question of freedom. This is based on the belief that ownership comes with choices and clearly defined rights are merely ways of according arrangement to a right that is inherent. That notwithstanding, the radical extension of intellectual property rights sometimes leads sensible people to question to what extent the assertion may go. Practitioners and scholars have argued for close to two decades now about the ability of firms or individuals to assert property rights through the legal instrument of patents, on biological organisms or portions such as genes.

It is mostly biotechnology firms that have tended to assert patent rights on genetic material by arguing that the isolation of genes creates a property interest in them. A judge in a US District Court appears to have momentarily put the brakes to a biotechnology company's claims to patent a couple of genes that it isolated as predisposing factors to breast and cervical cancer. To my mind, the judgement is correct primarily because the discovery f genetic material such as genes that already existed does not meet the test of having created it. True that it is a great service to isolate the genes but there are scientists who discovered blood groups and rhesus factors but cannot sensibly claim patents on those.

Secondly, my thinking is that because intellectual property rights recognized by the legal instrument of patents create monopolies around knowledge, the test for granting them should be strict indeed. This is not to say that they ought not to exists but rather that the isolation of the two genes by itself has led to an identification of a factor but that should not extend to ownership of those genes which precludes research in alternative ways of conducting tests to determine risk factors. A balance of these factors against the need to provide incentives for basic research leads me to the conclusion that the judgement was correct. As the story states, Myriad genetics was already using the patent to charge patients high fees for tests with full knowledge that the patent meant that there would be no alternative test based on the same genes.        

Banning Poker in Russia

One would think that of all things that governments realize today, it is the lesson that a multitude of rules does not  guarantee improvements in welfare. But bureaucrats have this tendency to ascribe the possibility of armageddon to any activity that some people are drawn to. True to its statist history, the government of Russia has announced a ban on playing poker for cash. This was accomplished by the de-listing of poker as a sport and therefore cannot be played for money.

Besides the annoyance that this creates in people who play poker with their friends for small wager, just what does this new rule accomplish? To my mind, the response form those who wish to circumvent the rule would probably be to keep records away from the playing tables. However, this rule is completely silly because these bureaucrats in Russia seem to be unaware of Partygaming and other online gaming corporations. But pragmatism is not a forte of most bureaucrats and in spite of the certainty that enforcement will fail, they would rather try.

Figuring Out Grisha's Incentives

In the last post, I mentioned that Grisha Perleman treated the fact that he was awarded a prize for having solved the Poincare Conjecture with nonchalance.  And I contrasted this to my strong belief that financial prizes especially are a superior way of organizing for intellectual work directed towards the solution of scientific, technical or policy problems. Searching around for any explanations from professional economists to explain Grisha's rejection of both the Fields medal and the Award that comes with a US$ 1 million prize led me to a talk by Steven Levitt. In it he says that financial incentives are demonstrably overrated because people acclimate to them quickly and they fail to provide incentives thereafter. Granted that prof. Levitt was discussing financial incentives as used by businesses, it is still worth noting that designing incentive systems is difficult.

So that leaves the possibility that Grisha Perelman is surfeit with the "psychic income" emanating from solving difficult mathematical problems. Still, the mystery is that Grisha found the prestige that comes with the Fields Medal and the singular distinction of acclamation from the Clay Mathematics Institute to be unimpressive. Perhaps he just want to solve problems in mathematics and be left alone.

Gregory Perelman Demands No Pay

Grisha Perelman is a mathematician who generated a solution to the Poincaire Conjecture, one of the more difficult problems in mathematics. Sylvia Nasar and David Gruber provide a background to this problem in a profound and revealing piece in the New Yorker Magazine a while back.  Grisha Perelman provided the proof by uncharacteristically publishing it on a website without bothering to send it to the formal mathematical journals. Later, he was deservedly awarded the Fields Medal by the International Mathematics Union and he declined the invitation almost contemptuously. 

 I learn every day that all the principles of economics are very strong and can be objectively demonstrated but also that some have definite limits. To start with, I have argued on this blog that one of the best ways to get solutions for academic or policy problems is to assign adequate prizes for them. The argument being that the financial reward mimics the market mechanism by presenting an incentive towards the development of the solution. About a week ago, the Clay Mathematics Institute announced that it awarded the Millenium Prize for the Poincaire Conjecture to Grisha was confirmed and he was therefore entitled to the US$ 1 million prize. 

Surprisingly, Grisha has neither  acknowledged the prize nor accepted the financial award in spite of evidence that he is not materially wealthy.  It may well be that there are a small number of people whose reward is the conquest of a longstanding and difficult problem and that the solution may be its own reward. 

Misuse of Airport Scanners

It is altogether understandable that concern for security has led to an introduction of procedures for passengers in order to ensure that air travel is as safe as possible. This concern with security has gone to such ridiculous levels that all reason has been abandoned in the quest to show that someone is doing something to protect vulnerable travellers. I think this need to strip belts, take off shoes and undergo a number of searches is just beginning to speak for itself. And all it says is that there is the the introduction of rules every now and again without much thought about whether it really reduces the security risks.

Right after an incident during a flight to the US in December, a number of airports rachetted upwards the security processes. Among the new rules was the full introduction of scanners that can see through clothing. Well, a case in the United Kingdom here shows that airport security officials who use the scanners have been using it to amuse themselves at the expense of passengers and their female colleagues. My purpose is to show that security thinking needs to be based on more sense than the fear.

Is Obama Still A Novice?

Irrespective of one's ideological orientation, a truly historic event took place in the US over the last couple of days. That event was the passage of a substantive health reform bill despite partisan divisions and with the conventional wisdom having been shown to be wrong again. While I have libertarian orientation, I was most displeased with the racist and obstructionist approach that replaced dispassionate analysis of the proposals of the bill. Having done some reading on history and political thinking, I thought that the socialist tag from partisans opposed to the bill was altogether cheap and dishonest.

The main part of this blog post however is to note a factor that many pundits and professionals fail to see about politics in general and the incumbent US president particularly. President Obama is a far more reflective and competent politician than his critics admit in their cynicism. Needless to mention, he got the stimulus package passed, accomplished a good record on economic management in a bad environment to get the markets up by a margin that is impressive and has now got his main domestic policy initiative passed. All this while many still consider him as a novice.

The more substantive issue is what this achievement means for President Obama's leadership. Daniel Gross summarizes the undeclared fact that it is dangerous to short Obama. His explanation for the reason that most of those who have questioned Obama's economic management capability have got it wrong comes from the composition of the self-selected crowd. And to an extent, most of them are Wall Street insiders and some corporate people who are known to have strong ideological orientation against state action but that does not work for positive political judgement. Judging from the group think that still dominates, I agree with Daniel Gross that this crowd has learnt little from this huge miss.

Format for E-reader Referencing

No need to confirm that I have been quite enthusiastic about the availability of electronic books generally and the e-book reader the Kindle in particular. After a couple of weeks of assessment of the device, I am still convinced that while the iPad will be out in a short while, I will not consider buying a more expensive gadget while the Kindle is still available. However, I am faced with a dilemma regarding the use of the Kindle and I am wondering whether there is any solution out there yet.

This dilemma comes from my thinking that most owners of the Kindle so far are probably voracious readers of books of all kinds. A number of them are definitely academics with a substantial proportion comprised of professionals who may even require the gadget for the performance of their regular work. These users of the Kindle have the ability  its users have access to a clipping facility in addition to wide storage of texts. Noting that the Kindle has understandably replaced pagination with a location facility has led me to wonder whether there is a mechanism for referencing pieces from the texts available in Kindle format. What happens when one needs to write an article and the article to be referred to is available in Kindle format. To my mind, this is not a trivial question because e-readers will be a facility for using text books and professional journals soon.

More on Merida Initiative

Blake Hounshell of the foreign Policy Magazine posts on his blog here about the wrong-headed approach to the drugs control policy in the America's. Similar to the views expressed in the last post on this blog, he says that its clear that a doubling up in a failed policy will yield no better results. Militarization of the fight works perfectly into the hands of the cartels. It is pretty clear that the failures are clear to many in the administration but nobody will broach the issue of abandoning the fight in its present form. The worst policy is to fail to accept when faced with a failed policy.

War on Drugs is Like Pushing a String

Perhaps there is no single subject that I have consistently posted opinions on this blog about than that of the appropriate policy approach to drug control. To my mind, the existing enforcement and militarized approach has nothing much to show in terms of good results other than a rise in violent death for innocent citizens and law enforcers. Painfully though, the deaths take place as the cartels and major drug trading enterprises continue to make enormous profits that enable them to destabilize low-income states. This trend continues as the last weekend saw the attack leading to death of two citizens of the United States and their Mexican associate in the Mexican City of Ciudad Juarez.

Obviously upset by the continued violence from the drug cartels, both President Calderon and Obama seem to have decided that more of the same will create the needed change. This NYT story states that the Mexican president visited and commisserated with the families and thereafter promised a more focussed military onslaught on the drug cartels. This is not new at all and will obviously not work even if it is spruced up with some judicial reform and social welfare expenditure. On the other hand, president Obama is to announce the expenditure of more money on joint military units and more law enforcement. This is consistent with the Merida Initiative that was predictably going to fail and from which no lessons seem to be absorbed.

So I offer some recycled simple advise regarding the Merida Initiative. Stop pushing that string.