Systems Design and Remote Probability

More than a decade ago, most technology users were faced with what was called the 2K problem which referred to the early programming of computers and related equipment which did not anticipate the change into the the new millennium. A lot of media frenzy and doomsday scenarios were developed about the mass crashing of computer systems together with the possibility that a level of problems may occur. To my mind, this state of affairs reflects a degree on inertia because in designing systems, we discount the future and are not always capable of covering all scenarios.

Reading this article reminded me of the 2K problem for the reason that the national health insurance service in Kenya has computer and software systems that were programmed with assumptions that are now causing an inconvenience. As stated in this story from the Daily Nation in Kenya, a man whose identification documents suggests that he is 128 years old could not be registered by the National Hospital Insurance Fund for the reason that its system software can only go as far back as 1890. Thus several attempts have been made to ensure his registration, without success.  

To my mind, this incident is interesting for a couple of reasons. The first is that given that the life expectancy of most Kenyan males is about 60 years, the system was designed with the view that the probability of an individual being 128 years old in Kenya was far too low to consider. Secondly, the failure to resolve this issue shows the degree to which people and institutions are captive to systems and are unable to adjust easily. In this case, it would still be okay for an authorized person to simply use the earliest data possible in ensuring the registration of this individual. Instead, I see the fixation with getting the right date and trying a variety of tricks to ensure that registration.     

Nobel Prizes: Being Right and Wrong

"Nobel prizes are sometimes awarded to scholars who are wrong for the right reasons, but almost never to those who are right for the wrong reasons". Robert H. Frank in The Return of the Economic Naturalist. p. 90

Vietnamese Demand for Cycles

Among the most salient phenomena that a person visiting parts of Asia notices, is the variety of options for transportation. In my view, Asia remains the continent of bicycles and rickshaws by a huge margin. From India to China and Vietnam, one gets the distinct impression that bicycles or rickshaws are an important way for people to move around and to transport goods as well. Rarely does one see transportation by cycles adopted to that degree in the African and Latin American world. 

In this interesting article, Esmer Golluoglu of the Guardian covers a story of the place of cycles of different kinds in Vietnam. Indeed, it is not just a story of mobility and furious economic growth but also an unimaginable anthropological study about ownership, status and utility of cycles of various kinds. Significant is the view that ownership is hierarchical starting with the conventional cycle, to the e-bike, motorbike and the automobile as marking the apex of status. To my mind therefore, it is possible to accurately deduce a person's status by the kind of cycle that she owns in Vietnam. It is certain that some marketers have noted it but this is quite an important issue for study about markets and the segments within them.  

Doctors Calls for Testing in Medicine

It takes several years of training and practice for any individual to begin to dispense medicine and care for patients. With this in mind, many patients who receive advise from a physician or a surgeon are bound to believe that that professional makes decisions and chooses the most effective methods for treatment that are available to the doctor. H. Gilbert Welch is far more modest by stating that the practice of medicine today is so complex that sometimes medical professionals choose options but are not certain that they are the most cost effective or even the most useful for patients.

Writing this article in the NYT, H. Gilbert Welch goes through a number of treatment options that doctors have dispensed in good faith but whose overall efficacy was not tested as rigorously as required. he now recommends that the ability to step back and conduct evaluation of one treatment option against another in order to determine relative effectiveness is necessary. One method of going through this is to integrate randomized evaluations as a critical part of decision-making by the profession. This call for more research is interesting because it is not intended to find out new methods and drugs but rather to focus on what works in the repertoire of treatments offered today.

This doctor highlights an important but hardly emphasized factor in innovation and knowledge today. Human welfare could be improved substantially by exploring the utility of existing treatments and knowledge but this is often surrendered to the quest for the new. And if that is applicable in a cutting-edge profession like medicine, one wonders how much so in other areas.               

Economics Signals End of Dandy Comic Book

I have been reviewing the extent to which the rise of digital media has affected the economics of the printing business generally and the print media in particular. I have been surprised by Mark Sweeney's finding in this article stating that one of the UK's most established comic book, The Dandy is facing closure for the reason that its circulation figures have been reduced to 8000 weekly copies. As stated, it is not that the decision to bring that 75-year old publication to a close has been made lightly. It seems that the publishers are alive to the fact that the population to which was originally intended have alternatives forms of entertainment in addition to different means for spending their money.

As a person with libertarian leanings, I find myself conflicted about the decision that seems to be prudent because it is based on the hard facts. On the other hand, I am wondering whether it is possible to reconfigure these comic books and deliver them through other digital means such as applications. And yet I am aware that the producers of these brand comic books that I once read must have considered a number of ways of maintaining the demand for their products and are probably at their wits end. Noting also that as Mark Sweeney mentions, about 3 decades ago, the same publication sold about 2 million copies weekly makes me wonder whether today's youngsters are totally different from their parents. This is because the comics books were really funny and suitable across a range of ages. It surprises me that with incomes having grown, the comic books should not have retained a level of demand to ensure its survival.

This suggests to me that there may be problems that can be analyzed through the instruments of economic theory but to which solutions may not exist. I would be content if the archive of all these comics were maintained in digital form for one never knows whether a new business model may emerge to make them profitable alone.

I apologize that I just could not find a free image of one of the characters to spice up the page. 

What Has 3D Printing Wrought?

An article in the Huffington Post by Dominique Mosbergen reports about an very clever man who managed to manufacture gun arts from 3D printing and assembled them into a usable weapon. for a country alert to recent disasters by people who handled guns maliciously and harmed fellow citizens, this development introduces a new challenge for public policy on firearms ownership and use. At the same time, there is the realization that 3D printing technology may lead to production of goods whose ownership and use remain in contention.

It may not be illegal to get blue prints and manufacture a weapon as the subject of the story did but a regulatory issue arises whether the product of that process requires registration. My hunch is that a bureaucrat will probably find good reason why it should be registered if not altogether outlawed. The fears of a criminal using a similar process to manufacture and sell large volumes of similar weapons, is perhaps overstated because the production of that weapon presupposes a high degree of knowledge and technical capability that many people save for dedicated students would have. Additionally, most of these goods are already manufactured by corporations whose processes use cutting-edge technology and who would probably wipe out a lone working competitor on cost and quality. What this state of affairs brings to the fore is that many technologies are marginally neutral in their effects and can also be applied for other purposes that portions of a society may not approve.  

Mitt Mixes His Facts and Numbers

There have been predictable reactions to Mitt Romney's claim that the difference between Israel and its neighbors is because the former has a better culture. Jared Diamond, who wrote the book Guns, Germs and Steel, dissects the claim in this NYT piece. That piece aside, many people asked about whether it was appropriate to make that claim given the different circumstances in which the two nations live. Still, this matter is worthy of consideration because there are differences between Israel and Egypt, Syria or other closer countries that do not live under the same political constraints of Palestine.

My view is that Mitt Romney may really believe in the argument that culture is a determinant of economic success. More surprising to me is that he and his team make quotes and attribute certain findings to Jared Diamond and other authors when these are not correct. Its clear that as the article by Jared Diamond states, this candidate for the presidency has most probably not read the book that he quotes liberally from and seems to be less concerned with differences between these countries. In spite of his support for "superior cultures", one would expect him to note that an income per capita of US$ 10,000 that he attributes to Palestine would still make it a mid-income country. An undeniably good business head should not show such ignorance about the economy. Its a plain fail for the campaign research team.