Benefits of e-reader Price Wars

In the last blog post here, i wondered what accounted for the price differential for the same titles of in e-book on Amazon. However. slightly related to that is the fact that the price for e-readers is rushing downwards very first. As stated here, Amazon has introduced two new Kindle e-book readers at much lower prices. One is a Wi-Fi  enabled e-book reader that goes for US$ 139 and therefore is the lowest priced of the main e-book readers.

While I do not understand how far the price war stated here will continue, I am sure of two things. first, it is clear to me that the e-book readers are becoming increasingly handy and are about to become regular electronic gadgets for many people. second and most important is the fact that Amazon's innovation has ensured that most of the value is appropriated by users of the devices. As is evident, today's cheapest Kindle is available for half the price charged a year ago and carries up to 2000 more e-books. And even the second device being launched is the same price as the Kindle 2 but with capacity for 2000 more books. That is a typical trajectory for electronic and new technology devices. may the price war continue.

Price Differences for Kindle Titles on Amazon

Browsing through Amazon's list of best selling titles for the Kindle, I noted an intriguing and non-trivial fact. A number of classics including Adam Smith's and John M. Keynes' popular publications are available in different editions suitable for the Kindle. However, one finds that the prices for the same text such as Adam Smith's, "The Theory of Moral Sentiments" are different. As stated on this page, separate versions of the same text are ranked at 317th and 318th respectively and yet the edition of the December 2008 costs US$ 2.95 while the August 2008 edition available for a 50% premium of US$ 5.79.

I wonder whether this substantial price differential has any effect of how many copies of each are purchased by browsers. I note that they may be different editions but they are probably similar in virtually all other respects. What am I missing about pricing Kindle editions of books on Amazon?

Aditya's Lame Attack on Charter Cities

Paul Romer's stature and reputation among professional economists is very solid. He is responsible for creating new ways for thinking about growth and this theory is called the New Growth Theory. More recently, he established a site in which he is discusses and updates his views on the new idea of charter cities. The idea is that high quality life and economic growth could be fostered in places by allowing new rules to be apply within sections of countries. His main example is the growth of Hong Kong by virtue of a different set of rules being applicable in it that were separate from those on the mainland. 

After the privilege of a meeting with Paul Romer in California, Aditya Chakrabotty dismisses the idea completely. To my mind, i think that the idea of charter cities leading to more Hong Kongs can be questioned legitimately, Aditya seems to have a different problem with the professor. To start with, he betrays his bias by sneering at the fact that Romer lives on a ranch overlooking the estate and further that Romer dismisses the concerns that assertions of sovereignty in many developing countries are often empty posturing. To tell the truth, there's no valid reason except for an ideological one for the harsh treatment of the professor's ideas. What a wasted trip!

Ferrari Rigged the Race Result

Formula 1 is a sporting competition that is unlike many others for a number of reasons, including the extremely fast and technology-dependent machines. In my view, it is also a distinct sporting activity in the sense that Formula 1 is a monopoly franchise which allows teams to enter up to two cars for every race.  What this means is that the individual drivers compete against each other while they are also part of a team as their total points per race add up to the team's score. In short, it is really two championships in one where drivers compete against each other but are also part of the same team.

Yesterday's race in the German Grand Prix race in Hockenheim attracted lots of deservedly negative commentary for the Ferrari team whose drivers won the first two places on the podium. With 18 laps to go before the end of the race, communication from the team to Felipe Massa curiously informed him that his team mate Fernando Alonso was faster. The same voice on radio asked Felipe to confirm that he understood the message.  It does not take much intelligence from regular viewers of the races to note that this was a hint that the leader should let his colleague overtake and thereby improve both their total points haul for the race in addition to improving the prospects of Fernando to rise in the points rankings for the individual drivers.

The FIA  reviewed the case and levied a fine of US$ 100,000 on the team for team orders that fixed the result finishing order  of the race. I think that the despite this explanation, team's tactics here were very crude because if a teammate is really faster, then he should not need the subtle aid of being let to go through as the faster driver should be able to master the speed and skill to overtake his team mate. While this may have been a defensible decision in the view of the team, it was so blatantly executed and the staged celebration between the drivers and the team president principal just reminded me that sometimes these smart guys underestimate the intelligence of their fans.

Hong Kong Tinkering With Success

Milton Friedman's hypothesis that freedom is a prerequisite for human prosperity was very difficult to refute whenever he pointed to Hong Kong. This was a small country with very little natural resources but thrived as a colony in the last half of the 20th Century. And because empirical facts will beat ideology, few people would refute the claim that there is a connection between freedom and prosperity. Hong Kong elevated the role of enterprise to such a degree that its highest political governor bears the title of Chief Executive.

The Economist shows that Hong Kong is now adopting a series of policies that would be a reversal of what its free market credentials have been. Starting with the introduction of a minimum wages, there is an industrial policy in place and other regulations that show that the size of government is growing steadily. At the same time, the maintenance of state-favoured monopolies in gambling and subsidies to entertainment industries.  With the exception of the laws to sensibly regulate monopoly power, I am unsure that these regulations, populist as they are, would be good for Hong Kong's growth. Much Just as the article claims, the country that comes closest to truly open markets is gradually ending the experiment and teachers of economics will be the poorer for it.

The Changing Books Market

When the iPad was launched with aplomb accompanied by serious media reviews, some commentators suggested that it would probably displace the Amazon Kindle. At the time, my guess was that it was not possible for the iPad to fully supplant the Kindle largely because the latter was a highly specialized product while the former was a more general and flashy gadget. To be honest, that assessment was based on my experience with the Kindle and reading of reviews and Steve Jobs' presentation on the capabilities of the iPad.

My reasoning that the Kindle would not be wiped out completely by the iPad seems to be borne out by the fact that both have grown in sales over that time. NYT's Claire Cain Miller writes that Amazon has reported that the sales of books for the Kindle have outnumbered sales for hard back books. That seems to suggest that e-book readership is expanding at the same time as ownership of the gadgets is spreading.    Analysts quoted in the story are making the inference that this is an inflection point at which e-books are acquiring stature as an important market for literature. I think that its too soon to say that but the trends suggests that as the prices of e-readers continue fall, the place of hard back books and other printed material will change fundamentally. The gadget of choice for most people will be revealed but I do not expect a single dominant gadget for reading.  

Multidimensional Poverty Index: Any Difference?

Two days ago, some scholars attached to a research facility in Oxford University together with the United nations announced the development of a new instrument for measuring poverty.  The Multidimensional Poverty index (MPI) is intended to take account of the geography and other variables that may affect the material condition of individuals and people. In detail, the piece report by the Radio Netherlands Worldwide site here states that the MPI is comprised of ten factors including education, health and standard of living and how these factors overlap at the household level.

As explained in the piece, the application of the MPI reveals that sub-Saharan Africa has deeper pockets of poverty but the south Asian nation of India has the largest number of poor persons by count.  In addition, this new index also places a further 400 million people in poverty when compared to the UN estimates show.

I am partial to the use of integrated data and innovative algorithms to provide meaning to phenomena. as a result, I concede that measuring poverty precisely has to be a complicated process because poverty is not only about income or the lack of it. However, as I stated earlier here, the production of new measures for different human can sometimes lead one to ask whether more indices necessarily lead to new knowledge or insights about poverty or how to respond to it. so while I respect the deep thinking hat has gone into construction of the MPI, i wonder whether it tells me much more than what common measures such as per capita incomes would. As described so far, I would agree with Paul Hoebink in the story that I remain unsure that a new index is nothing more than a mathematical stunt.

Making Data Useful For Soccer Management

Managers in sporting disciplines such as Baseball and Basketball know that the use of data provides a view against which tactics can be checked and diagnoses for outcomes made. However, their contemporaries in soccer have not yet been convinced of the value of the intense use of statistics. And while I am convinced that a degree of insights could be extracted from the use of statistical techniques, it is yet unclear how to deploy this data in the arena of soccer. This is because soccer has far too much variety and possibilities that make it difficult to design neat algorithms that predict outcomes accurately.

It is this dilemma of making use of the trove of data on soccer that has faced many coaches during the ongoing World Cup 2010 tournament in South Africa. Thomas Kaplan of NYT describes the situation that obtains and the difficult decisions that coaches have to make regarding what data choices to incorporate in their strategy.  There is obviously scope for use of data in decision making for tactics and other sports management issues but designing of those algorithms will still take a while. 

Use of data to determine decisions such as the value of a player, the methods of training and conditioning of players are already well-developed.  In spite of books such as this, the envy that soccer coaches have for baseball is justifiable. Number crunchers will need to find the metrics that matter most.     

Firm No From Grisha

A story on Grisha Perelman in the NYT escaped my attention but I got to it a couple of days ago. In a past blog post, I stated that Grisha appeared reluctant to formally accept the prize for providing the correct solution to Poincaire Conjecture. At the time, it was clearly premature to call it out as an outright rejection but it appears that he was not bluffing or trying to get media attention. Dennis Overbye confirms that in spite of approaches from the Clay Mathematics Institute, he has stated unequivocally that he will not accept the honour and the prize.  

This should put an end to it but I hope hat Grisha will take time to publish some information on what his disagreements are with the  "organized mathematics community". 

Cheating in College

Trip Gabriel of the NYT writes about the formidable crisis facing colleges and universities in the form of plagiarism and cheating at tests and exams. Unsurprisingly, as the sources of and ease of acquiring information has expanded, the temptation and ability to cheat at tests has grown as well. Most colleges are now adopting almost draconian surveillance methods to keep students from gaining unfair advantage at tests and assignments.

While it is beyond doubt that the colleges bear responsibility to remind students that they ought to study and to make attribution for information that they use, I am sure that this is case where a new approach to the meaning of results is due. For instance, colleges can neither control nor prevent students from finding access to sites that provide answers to assignments, the mechanism for determining the level of understanding and mastery of the subjects should be tried.  While the college professors quoted seem to be questioning the integrity of pupils, perhaps they ought to spend time questioning the exam-driven college courses.

So while I find the claim that only the less-capable students cheat in higher numbers, my suggestion is that colleges should provide students with an exam free option. This will then leave it to whoever cares about the diploma's to interpret the student's ability as they wish. College students may also choose the courses for which they consider themselves sufficiently prepared to face the tests.    

Tools of Judgement

"When people learn no tools of judgement and merely follow their hopes, the seeds of political manipulation are sown". Stephen Jay Gould.

Disease to Intelligence to Poverty?

A study that has been discussed by the Economist Magazine here established that the prevalence of infectious disease correlates highly with intelligence and a society's development. As expected the study by scholars from the University of New Mexico confirmed that tropical countries and Africa in particular has a high burden of infectious disease and that this is related to the level of intelligence measured by Intelligence Quotient (IQ).

The exact findings of the study is that a huge disease burden affects the intelligence of people within that geographical area and in turn undermines economic development. Taken ahead, this view suggests that geography has substantial implications for economic development. As explained, this inverse relationship between the disease burden and the average IQ. infectious pathogens that cause malaria for instance, affects cognitive development of children.

The place of IQ in economic development has separately been explored by Garett Jones and W Joel Schneider in the paper with the title: Intelligence, Human Capital and Economic Growth. In it Garett and Joel find that a 1% increase in average IQ increases a nation's GDP per capita by 0.11%. That led me to think that its all about education and yet this paper introduces public health questions in it. Two papers worthy of sending to Minister of health, education and finance for holiday reading.

Microsoft's Struggle With Smartphones

Commentators on technology today are suggesting that the initiative for innovation has shifted decisively from Microsoft Corporation towards Apple and Google. And my view is that the technology industry does not easily lend itself to very specific forecasting about outcomes and market dominance. Consider that a decade ago, many of the same pundits were convinced that Microsoft was almost secure in its dominance and that this could be extended from PCs towards other market segments.  Ashlee Vance of NYT confirms that Microsoft seems to be having a problem with getting a foothold with younger consumers to whom its smart phones were directed.  

What nobody would have been able to foretell is that at the time, one of Microsoft's perceived strengths may have contributed towards undermining its strength in smart phone technology leadership. This is because the insistence on keeping a closed platform for its products means that new programmers used the more open platforms that have come to dominate. It appears that this has almost made Microsoft absent as a platform for innovation and creativity for this market segment. and the moral of the story is that there is no perfect strategy n business and a strategy that leads to success may be the very Achilles Heel of a corporation. Is Apple taking note?  

President Fires Soccer Team

Needless to say, only deep disappointment has met many people who banked heavily on outstanding performance from African teams during the World Cup 2010. Putting aside the fact that Ghana qualified for the quarter finals by beating team USA, the rest of Africa is disappointed that the teams performed too poorly. To my mind, it appears that the expectation was far too high given the basic organizational and structural issues that produce consistently good performance on soccer pitches. In truth, virtually all African teams are lacking in that.

The disappointment in the performance of the Nigerian team was too much for its politicians to take. As a result, the delightfully named president Jonathan Goodluck of Nigeria unilaterally suspended the national team by announcing that soccer activity at the international level will remain in abeyance for two years. While that is laughable in the main and is bound to lead to conflict with FIFA as stated here, I see a positive side to all this.

To begin with, my libertarian view is that the Nigerian people would have much more to gain from a diversion of taxes away from funding private activity as soccer and into more public goods and services. Bearing in mind that Nigeria is a country of more than 100 million people, it is not useful to spend public money on financing sports played by rich professionals employed by clubs in Europe and Asia. So the president should not have suspended the Nigerian Football Federation's activities but merely withheld state subvention for all time. in this way, soccer organization in Nigeria would remain a matter for private organization.

Update: President J. Goodluck rescinded the decision after two days. He has no libertarian instincts after all.

Clip Art: http://www.cksinfo.com/sports/soccer/index.html